Ahead of tonight’s F4, let’s just reset on things to be aware of:
Contention standings:
1. Zucker 639 pts (Alabama, NC State, Purdue)
2. Knight 627pts. (Uconn (2), Purde (2), Alabama (1))
3. Tons. 603pts. (Edey)
– Tons is 36 points away from Edey becoming the all time single tournament scoring leader. (Juan Dixon 155pts 2002). Should that happen he will have 2 of the top 3 scorers of all time as Jay Williams has 154 pts in 2001. Interesting that his record only lasted 1 year. Based on Edey’s current PPG average of 30, he isn’t likely to break the record until Monday should they advance. Should he play 2 more games and hit his average, Tons would finish with 663 pts which seems like it won’t be enough to overcome those in front of him as it will take the F4 game to pull even before Zuck and Knight score a single point in the F4.
– Zucker is clinging to a 12 point lead and is outmanned 5 players to 3. For Zucker to hang on he likely needs the following to occur across the two games:
Purdue/NC State: Obviously Zucker needs NC State to win. His NC St guy is averaging 16.5 PPG and his Purdue guy is averaging 11.8 PPG. So potentially he picks up ~ 29 pts. Knight’s two boiler makers are providing a combined 18.3 PPG. If NC State can win, then Zuck in theory picks up ~ 10 pts after game 1 and dismisses two of Knight’s players and then has DJ Horne throw in another 16.5 point Monday night. But if Purdue wins, then another nail is driven in Zucker’s coffin.
Uconn/Alabama: Obviously Zucker needs Alabama to win. Sears is averaging 24.3 PPG. Knight’s two Uconn guys are averaging 25.5 PPG. So assume a push in the F4 there but then Knight throws in another 12.5 points from Estrada. So potentially Zucker gives back a bit of his lead if Uconn loses and Knight drops another 2 players. If Knight loses his 4 players across Uconn and Purdue, then Zuck heads into Monday night with a minimal lead and then should coast to a title with 2 players against Knight’s 1 player.
Seems like a lot to ask for both Purdue and Uconn to lose but if they do, then that’s Zucker’s path to a cup. For Knight his path is much cleaner, just get Purdue or Uconn into the F4, get them both and he hoists Cup #13.
One other scenario that could happen, regardless of what teams win tonight, is that Zucker and Knight are tied Monday morning. The solar eclipse that afternoon is the precursor to the Rapture and no one is crowned champion as the world ends prior to tip off. I wouldn’t bet on that one but there’s always a chance.