The Hemcher Cup XXX Preview Guide
“Si vis poculum, para bellum”
(“if you want the cup, prepare for war”)
Normally the opening paragraph of the preview guide is a mash up between the Hemcher Cup and a classic scene from one of the twelve movies that the editor of this guide has seen a million times during his life. However, this year, we aren’t going to try to interpose Gannon and Knight with some lame Jay and Silent Bob dialogue tie in (My love for you is like a Cup, BESERKER!, would you like some making points, BESERKER!), instead we are using Hollywood to best describe what the true spirit of competition is for the Hemcher Cup year after year (also the editor of this guide may have an unhealthy fandom for John Wick and just felt compelled to shoe-horn it into this year’s guide). On the surface the Hemcher Cup may appear to be a fun way for five friends to stay connected after college, but in reality, it is a hard fought, highly competitive once a year competition that each franchise strives to win. If you want to win the cup you better prepare for war. No longer can you buy the Monday morning USA Today NCAA tournament special pull-out section as you did in the 90’s and hope to win. Like Mr. Wick, you need to demonstrate focus, commitment, sheer will, things some team owners know very little about. In our case you don’t have to be able to kill men with pencils or have a 99.9% head shot hit rate, but you need to put in the work of watching games, catching west coast highlights, and scouring the internet for rumored player injuries or pending criminal charges. Jokes and witty comments may fly back and forth but we know deep down that with each upset or player lost along the way, each owner grimaces and fights away the frustration that they truly feel. Everyone wants to win, and everyone does their best to try to win but when it comes to the cup, you need to have a focused mindset against the competition, akin to John Wick at the end of JW2:
“Winston… tell them… tell them all… Whoever comes, whoever it is… I’ll kill them. I’ll kill them all.”
‘Course you will.” – John Wick and Winston, “John Wick: Chapter 2”
Ok, that should do it for our John Wick fix for this year’s guide, and now a quick recap of what happened last year…
Before we look ahead to HC XXX, it is always prudent to remind ourselves of what happened during the prior year’s competition. If you are a loyal subscriber to this preview guide, you already knew who was going to win in 2022 because we told you before the tournament even started that it was going to be Team Gannon. We don’t normally feel the need to pat ourselves on the back but it’s always nice when the industry rewards you with your 17th Pulitzer Prize for excellence in journalism. In 2022, we saw Team Gannon win its 7th championship and deny Team Knight the chance for the first ever three-peat in league history. Drafting out of the #3 spot, Team Gannon was in a tight group of franchises near the top in the opening rounds but was able to push to the front when he claimed sole possession of the lead after the Sweet 16 and never gave it back as he finished with 666pts, which was 73 pts ahead of 2nd place finisher Team Tonsmeire. Some other interesting notes and nuggets for last year: As previously stated Team Knight was denied the first ever three-peat. This was in fact the third attempt in League history for a three-peat (all by Team Knight) but once again proved too hard to achieve. There was only one 100pt scorer in 2022 which incredibly was delivered by last year’s Mr. Irrelevant as the final pick in the 2022 Hemcher Cup draft, Caleb Love, tallied 113 points. Also continuing in 2022 was the incredible black hole that is the 4th drafting position as once again that spot failed to produce a champion. In the recorded history of the Hemcher Cup, which has held 29 contests, we have yet to see a champion emerge from the #4 drafting position. Will this finally be the year it happens?
Spoiler alert, it won’t…
Now on to the projections…
“Evenin’, John.
Evenin’, Jimmy. Noise complaint?
Noise complaint.
[looks over John’s shoulder, sees the dead body on the floor behind him]
You, uh, working again?
No, I was just sorting some stuff out.
Ah, well… I’ll leave you be then. Good night, John.
Good night, Jimmy.” – John Wick & Officer Jimmy – “John Wick”
Team Zucker, last title 2016, current title drought: 5 years.
Most recent five-year averages; Points: 487, Draft Position: 4.0, Finish: 4.2
Much like Officer Jimmy’s uncertain conversation with John Wick, it seems like it’s been a while since we’ve heard from Team Zucker, and we aren’t really sure what they are up to. Is Team Zucker active? Did Team Zucker retire? If so, is Team Zucker coming out of retirement? Did Team Zucker single handedly kill a hit squad inside his own house? All good questions and ones that we will now give you the answers to…Yes, No, No, Maybe?
After the brief two-year renaissance period for Team Zucker of 2016 and 2017, they have unfortunately settled back into what is familiar territory for them. Following the 2016 Championship they defended their title admirably in 2017 with the 2nd place finish but since then they had three consecutive 5th place finishes and a 4th place finish last year. There have been four contests since that 2nd place finish in 2017 and over that time Team Zucker is averaging just 450pts which even to the casual Hemcher Cup observer is not going to have you
in the hunt for a title. Team Zucker has drawn the 3rd drafting position this year which is the same spot that produced last year’s winner, unfortunately for Team Zucker the 3rd spot has not been kind. Since 2010, they have drafted in the 3rd position three times, and were unable to finish above 5th place in any of those contests. It’s the combination of recent performance and the 3rd drafting position that has us unable to project Team Zucker any higher than last place this year. It’s not all doom and gloom for Team Zucker though, if you look at the trends around their previous titles. They won their first title in 1999. It took them 9 years to win their 2nd title in 2008. After that 2nd title, they won their 3rd title in 2016, which was 8 years later. If you are seeing the trend emerge, their next title should come 7 years after their last one which would mean this year is the year. But what you have to remember is that there was no tournament in 2020, so next year’s tournament will be 7 tournaments from their last title. We understand that we are force fitting this trend a bit to validate our narrative by using tournaments and not years, but you try to come up with clever insights and reasons why teams should win or lose, it’s not easy. So, look for Team Zucker to be projected to win next year which should also coincide with the return of the Wildcats and maybe even John Wick Chapter 5
“Who? That fucking nobody?
That “fuckin’ nobody”… is John Wick. He once was an associate of ours. They call him “Baba Yaga.”
The Boogeyman?
Well John wasn’t exactly the Boogeyman. He was the one you sent to kill the fucking Boogeyman…
Father, I can make this right.
Oh? How do you plan that?
By finishing what I started.
[irritated, turning to Avi] What the… did he hear a fucking word I said?
Dad, I can do this! Please!
[pulls Iosef close, talks into his ear] Iosef, Iosef! Listen! Huh? John will come for you, and you will do nothing because you can do nothing, so get the fuck out of my sight!” – Viggo & Iosef Tarasov – “John Wick”
Team Lampazzi, last title 2014, current title drought: 7 years.
Most recent five-year averages; Points: 567, Draft Position: 3.0, Finish: 3.2
Much like Iosef Tarasov, Team Lampazzi loves to strut around and talk big about how tough they are, but everyone knows it’s just bluster that they can’t back up. Team Lampazzi is the current record holder for longest active title drought with 7 years, which will undoubtedly grow to 8 this year. Since their last title in 2014, during the Obama Administration mind you, there have been 7 contests and they have managed to finish in 3rd place six times and 4th place once during that span. This franchise loves to tout that it is the inaugural champion and holds the
top spot for single tournament points scored by a single player, but their annual team performance demonstrates nothing but a very mediocre (at best) franchise. Their recent performance gives us no confidence that they can field a contender this year and on top of that they have drawn the #4 drafting position for 2023. For those unfamiliar with that spot, in the recorded history of the Hemcher Cup, the #4 drafting position has yet to produce a Champion, and that fact alone is enough to confirm this projected finish of fourth. Perhaps the #4 drafting position is the home of the Baba Yaga, because no one ever survives that start and for this year the Baba Yaga is coming for Team Lampazzi.
“He’s offered seven million dollars for your life. Seven million dollars is a lot of money, Mr. Wick. So, I guess you have a choice. You want a war? Or do you wanna just give me a gun? Somebody, please! Get this man a gun…
…Kimber 1911. 45 ACP. Seven round capacity.
Seven rounds?
Seven million dollars gets you seven rounds. That’s a million dollars a round, baby. Let’s go.” – The Bowery King & John Wick – “John Wick – Chapter 2”
Team Gannon, last title 2022, current title drought: 0 years.
Most recent five-year averages; Points: 637, Draft Position: 3.4, Finish: 1.6
The Bowery King gave John Wick seven bullets for his gun. Would he also give Team Gannon seven championships? Well, the good news for Team Gannon is that he doesn’t need help from the Bowery King because in 2022 he went out and got his seventh championship all by himself. Though Team Gannon won the 2022 championship by 73 points (notice the 7?) it wasn’t as easy of a victory as one might assume. For one thing his leading scorer only lasted three rounds, but Drew Timme averaged 27 PPG (another 7!) across those three rounds. For another thing, the team put up the top scores in only 2 of the 4 rounds in the 2022 tournament. His team PPG average was 3rd best at 13.3, trailing both Team Tonsmeire (15.2) and Team Lampazzi (13.9) but he had more games played than anyone else which is ultimately what won
him the contest. Team Gannon had 49 total games played which was 7 (there’s that number again) more than Team Lampazzi and 10 more than Team Tonsmeire. Is it also a coincidence that he won with 666 points? We know Team Gannon spends too much time in the dark web
but is he dabbling in the dark arts as well? Hmm? Maybe. Probably. But’s its fine if he is. Team Tonsmeire also posted a 666 in 2018, so who knows, perhaps the occult has taken over the Hemcher Cup. Regardless of whether it has or it hasn’t, in the illustrious history of Team Gannon’s seven championships, he has failed to repeat after his first six and based on that fact alone, we don’t see him breaking that trend this year. You might think having the #1 pick would be an advantage for the reigning champion, but this is unfamiliar territory to Team Gannon who will be drafting first for the only 2nd time over the last 14 years. The last time he picked #1 overall, 2015, he finished 2nd. We expect Team Gannon to be in the hunt for title #8 but just as John Wick only had seven bullets, we think Team Gannon also will stay stuck on seven championships for 2023.
“Oh, John fucking Wick. So, the old boy keeps his hotel, and you take the fall. Can’t say I blame him. I would’ve done the same thing if I was in his shoes. But this High Table shit… Seven cuts.
Under the table is where shit gets done. And they’re about to find out, if you cut a king, you better cut him to the quick.
So… Let me ask you, John. How do you feel? ‘Cause I am really pissed off. You pissed, John? Hmm? Are you?
Yeah” – The Bowery King and John Wick “John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum”
Team Knight, last title 2021, current title drought: 1 years.
Most recent five-year averages; Points: 599, Draft Position: 3.0, Finish: 2.6
At the end of the 2022 Hemcher Cup Championship, Team Knight must have felt just like The Bowery King and John Wick did at the end of John Wick Chapter 3. All were injured and bloodied after a brutal beat down that none of them saw coming. Just as The Bowery King was sitting on his throne atop the NYC crime world, so was Team Knight as they came into last year as the reigning kings themselves.
As noted earlier in this guide, in 2022 Team Knight was chasing the first ever three-peat for the third time in its storied history and just as with the first two attempts, they were unsuccessful yet again. For sure, there’s no shame in not being able to deliver a three-peat, but what must sting for Team Knight is the performance they put out to try to capture their unprecedented 13th title. Let’s start with the good news. First, they were the only team to have their #1 pick play all six rounds as Ochai Agbaji played thru the championship game and finished as a
member of the All Hemcher squad with 82 points scored (oddly this was the same number of points scored by Drew Timme in just 3 games). Secondly…
Well, there is no second point of good news. Team Knight finished with the least number of games played at 38, which tied Team Zucker, but he finished a remarkable 128 points behind Team Zucker in dead last with only 379 points which equated to just a 10.0 PPG average for the tournament. They had 10 players score less than 25 points, with 5 of those 10 scoring less than 10 points with 1 of those 5 providing 0 points thanks to being injured (LJ Cryer). Let’s not forget that this 379-point performance came just two years after Team Knight smashed the all-time single tournament scoring record with 890*. To put that in perspective, it would take the 2022 Team Knight team 2.3 tournaments to match what his 2019 team did. That feels like a brutal cheap shot to take, and it probably is but let’s also look back to the last time Team Knight went for a three-peat. In 2014, Team Knight was looking to win his 3rd consecutive title after winning the previous two rather easily by margins of 66 and 106 points. However, call it pressure, fate or bad luck, Team Knight laid an egg in that effort as well, as he only scored 391 points that year. In fact, Team Knight has the most sub-400-point performances since 2010 with three (390, 391, 379). Let’s put that in context a bit more, there have only been five sub-400-point team performances since 2010 with Team Zucker and Team Lampazzi accounting for the other two. Certainly, that’s not a circle Team Knight wants to travel in. Some may say that pointing out the failures of the league’s most dominant team may be fake news, others may call those alternative facts, however, we at THCPG call it like we see it and remain the only truly fair and balanced news outlet in the country. In the spirit of journalistic integrity, we also feel compelled to inform you that after Team Knight’s last attempt to three-peat ended in failure they wound up winning the following year which may or may not be a relevant point for this year. We won’t know if The Bowery King reclaims his throne until March 24th when John Wick Chapter 4 is released but as far as whether Team Knight is able to regain their throne? We can give you that answer today….
They won’t.
“Listen to me. What is this? Hmm? Do you remember? This is your blood. You came to me. I helped you. If you don’t do this, you know the consequences.
I’m not that guy anymore.
You are always that guy, John.
I can’t help you. I’m sorry.
You’re right. You can’t. But he can. I’ll see you soon, John.” – Santino D’Antonio & John Wick “John Wick – Chapter 2”)
Team Tonsmiere, last title 2018, current title drought: 3 years.
Most recent five-year averages; Points: 596, Draft Position: 2.4, Finish: 2.8
In 2018 Team Tonsmeire had just wrapped up its 4th championship and seemed poised to keep adding to that total and begin to inch towards the upper tier of the Hemcher Cup franchises. But then 2019 happened and Team Tonsmeire’s long standing points record of 746 was smashed to smithereens thanks to Team Knight’s 890* points. This seemed to take away some of Team Tonsmeire’s swagger and confidence as since 2018 he has struggled to return to being the team that they were. Just like John Wick, they didn’t think they were that team anymore. But we here at THCPG, much like Santino D’Antonio know that they are always that team and 2023 will prove that again. Let’s dive a little deeper into the recent history of Team Tonsmeire.
At the end of Round 2 in the 2022 Hemcher Cup, Team Tonsmeire found itself the leader of the pack with 399 points. In fact, they put up the most points of any franchise in Round 2 of last year’s contest (189 points) which gave them a slim nine-point lead over eventual champion Team Gannon. Unfortunately for Team Tonsmeire, that strong second round came at a heavy price as he entered Round 2 with 12 players and exited with only 6 players. His title hopes were cut off at the knees with that performance as his points output was essentially cut in half from Round 2 to the Sweet 16 (189 pts to 97 pts). To their credit, Team Tonsmeire continued to battle with Team Gannon across the E8 and F4, but he failed to put any players into the Championship game which allowed Team Gannon to extend the final margin of victory to a comfortable 73 points. Moving day came early to Team Tonsmeire in 2022 and we must wonder if they will learn from last year or continue to struggle. Since their last title in 2018, Team Tonsmeire has placed 4th, 4th, and 2nd which doesn’t really point to a positive underlying trend, but you must look one level deeper than that. Team Tonsmeire has four Hemcher Cup titles, and 3 of those 4 have followed a Team Gannon title. More often than not, Team Tonsmeire has followed a Team Gannon title with one of his own. 75% of the time, Team Tonsmeire wins 100% of the time after a Team Gannon championship. So, from our standpoint, history says that when Team Tonsmeire wins, he normally follows a Team Gannon title and since Gannon is the reigning champion, we are willing to give our projection to Team Tonsmeire for 2023 when they will take one step further towards the upper echelon of the Hemcher Cup by winning its 5th title. Team Tonsemire is always that guy.
As usual this guide is written for entertainment purposes only, please no wagering. Good luck to all! And GO CATS!