With 3 games left to go here are the current standings:
1. Gannon: 579 points, 4 players left (Villanova (2), Kansas (2))
2. Tonsmeire: 546 points, 3 players left (Duke (2), Villanova (1))
3. Lampazzi: 515 points, 2 players left (Kansas, UNC)
4. Zucker: 461 points, 3 players left (Villanova (2), UNC)
5. Knight: 327 points, 2 players left (Kansas, Duke)
Looking at this from a purely Hemcher Cup lens (head, not heart), there are only two teams in the running, Gannon and Tonsmeire.
Ter remains in very good position to hold off Tonsmeire as his two Jayhawks are averaging 21 points per round and Samuels/Slater are averaging ~ 19 points per round.
Assuming they hit their average, that’s about another 40 points on Saturday for Ter.
Ton’s is averaging 32 from his Duke guys and 13 from Collin. So if everyone hits their average this Saturday then the lead should more or less remain right where it is now.
But the underlying need for Team Tonsmeire is to have Duke advance to Monday night. Tons’ championship hopes are tied to Duke this year. Tons and K ride together and die together.
For Ter, either team advancing should yield him about the same amount of points in the championship so for him it doesn’t really matter who advances (again HC lens only).
For Tons, I think he wants a Duke/Villanova championship as he would pit 3 guys vs. 2 and hope that Collin more or less offsets Ter’s Wildcats and allows his Duke guys to make up the gap.
If Duke loses to UNC, then the Cup will be settled right there as Tons won’t have the firepower to make up ground.
As long as Duke advances, Tons remains in the hunt. He will still need things to go his way but if they do, he could wind up winning very late on Monday night or someone might need to find Wayne Turner, as he could be trending on HC Twitter that night….
Again, this is written from a pure HC perspective, all personal emotions and opinions about the other three teams are left to the HC Signal channel.
-AttC