The Hemcher Cup XXXI Preview Guide
Welcome back to yet another season of The Hemcher Cup!
This upcoming contest is very likely to be one of the most unpredictable one’s in the three decades long history of the Hemcher Cup. With the explosion of NIL, the transfer portal, and conference realignment, the landscape of college basketball is forever changed and what used to be predictable has become increasingly unpredictable. But, as the savvy Hemcher Cup enthusiast knows, in a world of chaos, the one source of guidance that you can trust to make sense of it all, is without a doubt The Hemcher Cup Preview Guide (THCPG).
This is the only publication that takes the time to conduct extensive and intricate analysis with embedded analysts assigned to each and every franchise. That being said, it should come as no surprise that in 2023 we received yet another Pulitzer and Nobel Prize for our outstanding work as we correctly predicted the top three finishing positions. If it was horse racing, that’s the trifecta and people win lots of money, but for us, that’s just another day on the job. And believe us when we say that we won’t rest on our laurels this year.
We could go on and on patting ourselves on the back for the unparalleled work that we produce but instead of doing that, we feel the need to provide a public service warning to the fantasy sports fan at large. That warning is that with the inevitable gains in technology, we are seeing a significant rise in the number of cheap knock off guides being churned out from AI. So just remember if you want to get the edge on all of your opponents, this is the guide for you, but if you’d rather save a few pennies and buy a cheap AI knock off like The Hemker Cup Preview Guide, then that’s on you.
2023 Lookback
As always before we provide you with the projections for The Hemcher Cup XXXI, let’s take a few moments to recall what happened in 2023. Last year saw the return of Team Tonsmeire to the championship podium. Although it was not a record breaking performance by Tonsmeire (605 pts), it was nonetheless memorable as he did not score a single point after the Elite 8 and still managed to win by 38 points over runner up Team Knight. Team Tonsmeire was led by the overall #2 pick in Drew Timme who put up the 3rd most points of last year’s tournament with 97. Tonsmeire was rewarded by going back to the Gonzaga well in round #3 for Julian Strawther for another 65 pts. The championship foundation was laid by the Gonzaga double down but what separated him from the pack were a couple of later round picks, Markquis Nowell (Round #4, 94 pts) and Ryan Kalkbrenner (Round #14, 80 pts). Team Tonsmeire was the top scorer in each of the first four rounds before running out of players but as already mentioned, that lead was big enough to let him glide into the win and secure his 5th Hemcher Cup Championship.
Can Team Tonsmeire become the 4th ever repeat champion and only the 2nd franchise to do so (done 3 other times by Team Knight)? Will Team Zucker still draft a Villanova player even if they aren’t invited to the dance? Will Team Gannon accidentally draft a women’s lax player in the 4th round? Will Team Lampazzi break 400 pts? Will Team Knight be projected to finally win a cup?
Should a president have immunity from criminal prosecution?
The answers to many of these questions can be found in the pages that follow…
Fifth Place
“I play for the Indians.
Here in Cleveland? I didn’t know they still had a team!
Yup, we’ve got uniforms and everything, it’s really great!”
– Jake Taylor & Chaire Holloway – “Major League”
Team Lampazzi, last title 2014, current title drought: 8 years.
Most recent five-year averages; Points: 524, Draft Position: 3.6, Finish: 3.6
The current longest active title drought belongs to Team Lampazzi. That opening sentence is something that we haven’t had to change since 2018 as that year marks the point where the four other franchises had won at least one title since Team Lampazzi’s last championship in 2014. Could you imagine in May of 2014 if someone asked you to predict which of these things was the most likely thing to happen in the next 10 years? A) The Chicago Cubs win the World Series; B) Britain would leave the EU; C) Donald Trump would be elected President; D) There would be a Global Pandemic that would kill millions of people; E) Team Lampazzi will win another Hemcher Cup. I think most people, if asked, would have answered that choice E was the most likely thing to occur and yet it is the one thing from that list that hasn’t. It’s been a long time since Team Lampazzi won and they did nothing last year to provide any hope to their long suffering fan base that they are about to contend this year, since they managed to score only 361 pts last year across a mere 26 total games played. That performance was one of the worst in the history of The Hemcher Cup as there have only been six sub 400pt performances since 2009 with Team Lampazzi owning two of those. We tend to joke that this franchise has become irrelevant but much like the woeful Cleveland Indians of the late 1980’s, we are beginning to wonder if even their die hard fans realize that they still have a franchise with uniforms and everything?
Fourth Place
“Dave, tell us how awesome it was for you to win your 5th Hemcher Cup Title and not even have to play a minute past the Elite Eight….
“Well, John, as you know, it’s all about attitude and staying humble and hungry. The team played Tonsmeire basketball, played for each other and for those who came before them. T’s up!”
John Fanta & Dave Tonsmeire – April 3rd, 2023
Team Tonsmeire, last title 2023, current title drought: 0 years.
Most recent five-year averages; Points: 601, Draft Position: 2.2, Finish: 2.4
Hemcher Cup XXX was a dominant performance for Team Tonsmeire as he cemented his position as the 3rd most successful franchise by winning his 5th championship. As mentioned earlier, he opened up a big lead through the early rounds and coasted to a championship without a single point scored after the Elite 8. He follows up that performance by landing the #1 pick in this years draft which seems like good fortune but since 2009, this has happened just three other times before this year and in only one of those prior three instances did the team manage to ride the #1 pick to a championship. And let’s not forget repeating in this league is quite hard to do anyway, as it’s only happened three times and even then by only one other franchise. Unfortunately for many HC champions, they tend to lose that humble and hungry attitude once they’ve won. They start to get invited for their celebrity to appear at other sports events like FCS playoff games in the Dakota’s with the paparazzi posting photos of them on Signal and various NAS devices. I’m sure that rubbing elbows with the likes of John Fanta and Joe Lunardi must be intoxicating to those caught up in the fame associated with their recent success, but somewhere along the way, they trade that fame for focus. Is “attitude” still preached in the Tonsmeire huddles? Do they still tap the rock? Chances are that they haven’t lost their connection to the blue collar work ethic instilled in their Long Island fan base, but we think perhaps they may have a little too much “Uptown Girl” clouding their draft analytics this year and not enough “Honesty”. After the inevitable poor finish on the horizon in 2024, we assume next year their motto will be “Say Goodbye to Hollywood”. It’s also worth noting that Team Tonsmeire has defended their titles with finishes in the following years of: 6th (two times), 4th, and 2nd.
Third Place
“No Man, this negativity just makes me stronger, we will not retreat, this band is unstoppable!”
– Cliff Poncier – “Singles”
Team Knight, last title 2021, current title drought: 2 years.
Most recent five-year averages; Points: 597, Draft Position: 3.2, Finish: 2.4
If someone told you that in 2023 Team Knight would have the two highest scoring players in the tournament and play in 44 total games, 7 more than any other team but yet would not win the championship, you would probably be more than just a little confused on how that could have happened. Even though he played in 8 more games than champion Team Tonsmeire, his players didn’t put up enough fire power, as his team actually had the lowest PPG avg of any team in the tournament, with just 12.9 PPG. By contrast Team Tonsmeire posted a PPG avg of 16.8. This low average was likely the result of three things: First, there was some bad luck involved for Team Knight as evidenced by 9th round pick Dylan Disu missing the S16 and E8 games due to injury while he was averaging 22.5 pts in his first two games played. If he plays in those two games and hits his average, it’s very conceivable that Team Knight could have won. Secondly, there’s bad drafting. Team Knight is the ultimate front runner and very rarely strays away from drafting anyone from a team any worse than a #4 seed. But this past year they went off the rails and drafted 2 players off teams lower than a #4 seed while 12 of his 14 were on #4 seeds or better. He took a Memphis player (#8 seed) who contributed 13 pts in his one game and a Kentucky player (#6 seed) who gave him 27 pts across two games. So we’ve spoken of the bad luck and the bad drafting as two legs of the 2023 Hemcher Cup failure, with the final leg being bad karma. Team Knight is no stranger to dancing with the devil and he did so again in 2023 by drafting Brandon Miller from Alabama with his 2nd pick. We all know the storyline around Brandon last year which is the reason why he fell into the 2nd round. He had baggage associated with him, and likely guns in that baggage. With all the distractions it’s no surprise that he performed badly, as he finished with just three games played and scores of 0, 19 and 9 in those games. You don’t have to be a master of Hemcher Cup Analytics to realize that getting only 28 pts from your second round pick is not good.
After reading this capsule you are probably thinking that Team Knight was only a couple of bad picks away from winning another Cup and you might also recall that after Team Tonsmeire’s last two championships that Team Knight won the following year so why wouldn’t we pick them to win this year? The answer is obvious as this year’s tournament projects to be a minefield of upsets which doesn’t favor chalk and if there’s any team in this league that loves chalk, it’s Team Knight. And if that isn’t enough to convince you, don’t forget that Team Knight is drafting out of the 4th spot this year which is yet to produce a champion in the recorded history of this competition. Better luck next year, and good luck with that new album in Belgium.
Second Place
Team Zucker, last title 2016, current title drought: 6 years.
Most recent five-year averages; Points: 456, Draft Position: 3.6, Finish: 4.6
Last year we projected Team Zucker to finish in 5th place and they surpassed that expectation by finishing in 4th place, and in reality only six points from a 3rd place finish. By historical Team Zucker standards this was generally a good year but still showing some concerns as they strayed away from their basic mission statement to not draft douchebags or from what might be considered outlaw programs. Unfortunately in 2023, we saw Team Zucker deviate from this basic tenant of team strategy and ultimately it probably cost him a chance to contend. With his 5th pick he drafted Kyle Filipowksi from Duke and banked his 19 pts across two games played. He dipped his toe in the Houston Cougar pool with his 7th round pick in J’Wan Roberts and banked another 19 pts across three games played. Where his draft went totally south was in picks 9 thru 11 which I’m sure if you asked Team Zucker if he was happy with those selections he would reply with an empathic “no fucking way” as he chose players from Iowa State, Purdue and Utah St. Those three players contributed a total of 3 games played and 31 total points. We’ve called out this deviation from the tried and true Zucker draft strategy in the past and once again it came back to bite him in the end. We encourage Team Zucker to stay true to themselves, don’t stray from your core competencies, avoid any non productive ism’s and just believe in yourself. We fully realize that as of press time, there are likely to be no Villanova Wildcats in this year’s pool but we don’t think that will be a problem for Team Zucker as we expect them to get back on board with their unique team draft strategy and ride it to a very strong and competitive contest but one that will ultimately come up just a little bit short of a championship.
First Place
“Hey Yankees… you can take your apology and your trophy and shove ’em straight up your ass!
And another thing, just wait till next year!” – Tanner Boyle and Timmy Lupus – “Bad News Bears”
Team Gannon, last title 2022, current title drought: 1 year.
Most recent five-year averages; Points: 597, Draft Position: 2.4, Finish: 2.0
It’s pretty much been a given in this league that Team Gannon is the 2nd most successful franchise as they boast 7 Hemcher Cups and a track record of finishing in the top half of the pack. They’ve only finished worse than 3rd place just twice since 2009. In fact, over that time period they have 3 titles and 7 second place finishes. That’s ten top two finishes across 14 years. Team Gannon is a stalwart of strong performance and a team to never be taken lightly. But with those 7 second place finishes since 2009, they’ve allowed Knight to win five cups and Tonsmeire to win one cup during those 7 runner up years. While finishing 2nd can certainly be considered strong performance it has allowed both Knight to extend his overall lead in cups while at the same time allowing Tonsmeire to make up ground behind Team Gannon. Currently Team Gannon sits with seven titles as compared to Knight’s twelve and Tonsmeire’s five. Team Gannon is going to need to start putting more trophies in his case or risk being passed by Team Tonsmeire. 2023 was not a particularly strong performance from Team Gannon as he only scored 488 pts with a very peculiar draft board. Right off the bat, he doubled down on Jayhawks which was not a good decision as Kansas decided they only wanted to play in two games. With his 4th pick he took Adam Flagler from Baylor who checked out after two games as well. Perhaps he was already dreaming of Flagler beach last year and it clouded his strategy. But I don’t want to think about what he was dreaming about since his second round pick was Grayson Dick. Anyway, Team Gannon was way too invested in the B12 last year with representation from Kansas, KSU, Baylor and Texas. KSU was a good pick but the rest were not. We don’t expect him to head down that path again in 2024. In fact, we expect a strong bounce back year motivated in part by the desire to hold off both the advance of Team Tonsmeire behind him and the distancing of Team Knight in front of him. Team Gannon finds itself drafting in the 3rd position this year which is the same spot that they won their last championship from in 2022. Though we’ve tried to compliment Team Gannon in this capsule for his numerous second place finishes, we expect them to take on the attitude of Tanner Boyle and Timmy Lupus and be chomping at the bit to get another chance for a championship this year.
As usual this guide is written for entertainment purposes only, please no wagering.
Good luck to all!